Updated —
Each poll is weighted by recency (Gaussian kernel, 7-day bandwidth) and
sample size (√n). The smoothed trend line uses the same kernel across
100 evenly-spaced time points. The displayed average always matches the rightmost point of
the trend line. In Shift from 2024 mode on the map, every district is shifted
by the full difference between the entered D−R margin and the 2024 national House baseline.
Forecast mode applies 85% of that national swing (plus candidate WAR),
so seats move more cautiously than a 1:1 uniform swing.
For simplicity, I include the same polls as VoteHub, excluding very low quality pollsters and
outliers. Currently, polls are not weighted by pollster rating, but I am working on an update.